Syria - what next?????

[niemeyjt]

So Bashar al-Assad is gone, possibly dead, and the ISIS-linked and proscribed Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is in charge, at least of Damascus.

I am unconvinced if this is good or bad.

I remember Libya - where joy at the overthrow of Qaddafi has turned to the current bloody civil war. And regime change in Iraq was not all it is cracked up to be.

I see another wave of refugees heading our way.

[tagh]

Libya was effectively three countries and seems to have broken up again, though I am not sure how far Fezzan is linked to Cyreniaca. Of course much of the fighting was about the oil riches which are huge. I guess those too will be divided. The Cyreniacans hated Gadaffi with a passion

[Spectrum]

Assad is in Moscow I wonder how many millions he took, just as spending money of course.

[Bayleaf]

Reading through a BBC article, this conversation with a Syrian man stands out:

"The transition has to happen in a proper and correct way," said Alaa Dadouch, a 36-year-old father of three standing outside with his neighbours. "And the fact that he just left, you know…"

"Bashar al-Assad?" I prompted.

"Yes, you see I'm still scared to even mention this," he said. "But the fact that he just left, that is selfish. Our president should have taken the proper measures that are needed for him to give at least the army or the police control over those areas until a new presidency comes in."

He paused. "You know, two days back, I wasn't able to say that he's selfish, it would have been a big problem. A lot of everything is different.

"You can actually breathe, you can walk around. You can actually give your opinion. You can say what bothers you without being scared. So, yes, there is a change. I hope it's a good change. But we've been living under false hope for 13 years [of civil war]."

This country is caught between joy and fear, hoping for peace and worried about chaos."

Too early to say, but I would imagine more Syrians wanting to return to help rebuild their own country, than wanting to now flee. I see the land-grabbing neighbour has already taken advantage of the situation. No surprise there.

[Headers]

The Torygraph had a video of Assad’s car collection alongside a picture of a 3 year old child being released from the hell hole prison. There was also the chemical weapons use against his own countrymen. What a warped personality Assad has.
He ran Syria like a mafia organisation. Bet the gnomes of Switzerland are getting ready to pay his entry ticket to Russia.

[Blaze]

Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is considered a terrorist organisation despite its split from Al-Qaeda. It is another extremist Islamic group so there are no guarantees that their ousting of Assad will guarantee the freedom the Syrians want. There are many other rebel organisations in Syria who rose against the government, and the difficulty may be to get these groups to pull together to provide unity for the country.
Will Russia be allowed to keep its naval base in Tartus if they are now harbouring Assad and having supported his regime ?

An insight from former head of MI6 Sir John Sawers :
https://news.sky.com/story/former-mi6-c ... d-13269444

Why is there is no footage of women celebrating the rebels' victory (there never is ...) ? What is next for them I wonder. Syrian women have had more freedom than in other countries, but how long will this last ? Will Syria cut its ties with Iran ? If the new regime wants to be accepted/acknowledged by the west, it has a lot of work to do ....

[Biloute]

Many scenes of joy in France after the fall of Basher Al-Assad. Should we really be happy about it ? I'm not sure... Of course, the departure of a cruel dictator is always a good thing, but will his successor Al-Joani and his HTS really be better ? I hear a lot that we have to wait and see. Here again, I'm not sure, considering what has become of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Iran. Did the ousters of Saddam Hussein, Muhamar Khadafi and the Shah make these countries better for their populations ? Not really ! For example, Iranian women had to swap their miniskirts for burqas... Western politicians would like these countries to gain access to "Western-style" democracies. I am not sure that this is in line with the mentality of the populations of the Middle East...
I think that our leaders should refrain from interfering in these countries and let their populations control their destiny.
On the other hand, it would be wise to protect the European populations from the effects of these conflicts, which should stay away from us. Currently, there are Syrians in Europe who have fled the Al-Assad regime. If they want to return to Syria, let's facilitate their return ! But there will be Al-Assad supporters who want to flee an Islamist regime: I do not think that we should welcome them because that would mean importing a conflict that is not ours onto our soil. Not to mention that, among them, there is a risk of fanatics slipping in who will come to practice jihad of conquest among us.

[AmandaJ]

Iranian women had to swap their miniskirts for burqas...

you could say they had to swap their normal modest clothing for burqas (or maybe I'm thinking of Afghanistan - either way, the principle is the same)

[Blaze]

I can understand your disquiet, Biloute.
I read somewhere that Syrians felt that Assad should not have fled but should have faced the music. Having seen what happened to Gadaffi, it's hardly surprising he fled.

The Middle East is a mess at the moment and I agree, it would not be pleasant if these conflicts spilled over on our soil.
If the refugees were just people who would accept the laws and culture of their host country, there would be no objection. But many, once settled, want to impose Sharia law on Moslems which would be in direct conflict of keeping "church and state" separate.
It would be difficult to screen everyone wanting to claim asylum .... many fled not just Assad, but also Daesh.
The situation is already becoming more complicated with Israel bombing areas in Syria they believe are military areas .....

Here is a video of Nasser, former Egyptian President, talking about the Moslem Brotherhood who wanted wearing the hijab to be mandatory in .... 1958. The suggestion was greeted with roars of laughter from the audience ....

[exile]

I'm not sure, considering what has become of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Iran.

And in each of those countries, western nations became closely involved.


Perhaps if we steer clear this time, the population can determine their own futures without intervention from outside forces or the internal but frequently minority reactions against those outside forces.